'The West Asia or the Gulf crisis has shown that what we develop as national infrastructure when things are not as bad as they could be, we forget to plan for adversities.'
Given the concerns around trade wars that threaten to jeopardise global capital flows as well, attracting foreign capital needs to be a policy priority, says Neelkanth Mishra.
Indian investors have seen their wealth erode by a staggering Rs 48.29 lakh crore since the West Asia war began on February 28, leading to a significant downturn in the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.
Foreign investors fled Indian equities in 2025 at a scale never seen before, pulling out a record Rs 1.6 lakh crore (USD 18 billion) as volatile currency movements, global trade tensions, especially potential US tariffs, and stretched valuations eroded risk appetite, though flows are expected to turn sustainably positive in 2026.
ICICI Bank, Eternal, Titan, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services and UltraTech Cement were also among the laggards. However, InterGlobe Aviation, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever and Bajaj Finance were among the gainers.
Foreign investors have remained cautious ahead of the Union Budget amid expectations of limited policy changes.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
From the Sensex pack, Bajaj Finserv, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, Bharat Electronics and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the major laggards. However, Tata Steel, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, and Trent were the biggest gainers.
The rupee plunged 26 paise to an all-time low of 90.75 against the US dollar in intra-day trade on Monday, weighed down by uncertainty over an India-US trade deal and persistent foreign fund outflows.
Fears around artificial intelligence (AI) sparked a global selloff in information technology (IT) stocks, dragging down domestic software shares and prompting the heaviest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows since the second half of July 2025.
Shares of brokerage-related companies nosedived 18 per cent on Sunday after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed raising securities transaction tax on commodity futures to 0.05 per cent from 0.02 per cent in the Union Budget 2026-27.
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew over Rs 22,530 crore ($2.5 billion) from Indian equities so far this month amid rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar, continuing their selling streak from last year. This came following an outflow of Rs 1.66 lakh crore ($18.9 billion) recorded in 2025, triggered by volatile currency movements, global trade tensions and concerns over potential US tariffs and stretched market valuations.
From the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, ICICI Bank, PowerGrid, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Maruti Suzuki India, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement and HCL Technologies were the only gainers. On the other hand, Eternal, Tata Motors' commercial vehicles arm, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Trent, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, and Infosys were among the laggards.
Trade deals ease risks for Indian equities, but weak demand and stretched valuations raise questions over whether optimism -- especially in smallcaps -- can turn into a sustained bull run, points out Debashis Basu.
During the day, it tanked 634.38 points or 0.78 per cent to 80,050.07. The NSE Nifty declined 137.15 points or 0.56 per cent to 24,198.85. "The near-term market construct has turned weak, with FIIs turning sellers on rallies.
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets are expected to track Q3 corporate earnings from several blue-chip firms, including TCS and Infosys, while inflation data and global trends would also dictate investors' sentiment, analysts said.
Stock market is gearing up for an eventful week ahead where key triggers such as quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and the upcoming Union Budget for 2026-27 would grab the limelight, analysts said.
Sensex drops 138 points on foreign fund outflow
FPIs net sold equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion in 2025 -- the highest annual net sale on record.
The Indian rupee, swaying through multiple headwinds, tiding over global trade disruptions and massive foreign fund outlfows, is unlikely to arrest its descent until tariff impact overhangs, notwithstanding robust domestic macroeconomic tailwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which sees the rupee's depreciation as a silver bullet to offset the tariff shock, expects the currency to find its stable course once India reaches a trade deal with its largest trading partner, the US.
Gold and silver prices are poised to maintain their record-setting rally in the coming week as investors focus on global inflation data and key macroeconomic indicators that shape central bank policy paths, analysts said.
India was being evaluated for a potential weight of around 1 per cent in the index, an allocation that could have translated into $25 billion of inflows, spread over roughly 10 months.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the central bank does not target any band for the rupee in the forex market, and allows the domestic currency to find its own correct level.
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
'As long as Sebi maintains transparency and market stability, the Jane Street episode is unlikely to deter long-term foreign capital.'
Importers are rushing to hedge their dollar positions amid the sharp depreciation of the rupee against the American currency and expectations of further volatility even as exporters are holding off after suffering mark-to-market (MTM) losses on earlier hedges.
From the 30-share pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Eternal, Power Grid, ITC, Tata Motors, Asian Paints and Hindustan Unilever were among the gainers. Among the laggards, Kotak Mahindra Bank tanked 4.57 per cent
Foreign investment in bonds issued by Indian corporates touched a 10-year high in May at 20,996 crore, driven by $3.35 billion fundraise by the Shapoorji Pallonji (SP) group, which saw infusion from Deutsche Bank, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Davidson Kempner, and Cerberus Capital, among others. The SP group sold three-year bonds, offering 19.75 per cent yield compounded annually and payable at maturity.
Markets regulator Sebi will soon set up a working group to undertake a comprehensive review of short selling and the Securities Lending and Borrowing (SLB) frameworks, its chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said on Friday. The framework for short selling, introduced in 2007, has largely remained unchanged since its inception.
These investors have pumped in about Rs 6,900 crore (Rs 69 billion) in the seven trading sessions after the Federal Open Market Commission meet.
Sanjay Malhotra has made structural changes to banking regulation to bring down costs and increase efficiency. Plus, he kicked off a benign interest regime. But there are challenges ahead.
The Indian government has expressed its disagreement with the IMF staff's 'baseline' assumption that the 50 per cent US tariffs on its goods exports 'would remain in place indefinitely', based on which the staff pegged the country's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent this year, and pared its 2026-27 projection by 20 basis points to 6.2 per cent.
The strong domestic flow offset selling by foreign portfolio investors who pulled out $23.3 billion (Rs 2.03 trillion) from domestic equity markets in CY25.
'The net inflows into MF schemes may also have been lower last month, with investors booking profit and taking a more measured approach amid elevated valuations.'
From the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Nestle, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were the biggest gainers. However, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were the laggards.
From the Sensex pack, HDFC Bank, Maruti, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, ITC, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the biggest laggards. NTPC, Adani Ports, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel and IndusInd Bank were among the gainers.
From the 30 Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank plunged over 18.50 per cent after the firm reported a 40 per cent decline in September quarter net profit at Rs 1,331 crore, pulled down by concerns over its asset quality. Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Maruti, Bajaj Finance and Titan were also among the laggards.
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